Minutes of SMM Bronze Morning meeting on September 4
Macro: 1) Vice Premier Liu he met with US Senator Daines and his entourage on the 3rd. Liu he said that China firmly opposes a trade war, which is not good for China, the United States, and the world as a whole. 2) the final PMI value of the US Markit manufacturing industry in August was 50.3 slightly better than expected; the final value of the PMI of the US ISM manufacturing industry in August was significantly lower than expected and fell below the line of prosperity and decline for the first time since August 2016, indicating that the manufacturing performance may be a drag on economic growth in the third quarter. Fundamentals: 1) scrap copper: yesterday's fine scrap price difference of 839 yuan / ton. Recent trade frictions between China and the US and the surge in the dollar index have suppressed the copper market. The price difference of refined scrap has been running below 1000 yuan / ton recently, the price advantage of scrap copper has been weakened and the transaction is poor. Although it has entered September, downstream consumption is still weak and has not improved. With the arrival of the peak season, consumption is expected to gradually improve in the future, scrap copper enterprises look forward to consumption to stimulate demand. 2) Import copper: yesterday's import profit of about 100 yuan / ton. For two days in a row, the import price ratio has been maintained at a better level, and the warehouse receipt inquiry is relatively more positive, but the market offer is very few, the fire method above the warehouse receipt offer is in 85, the market transaction is more than 82, the price performance is outstanding, but because the price is too high, the trading volume is also limited. By contrast, the price of the bill of lading is relatively stable, the wet transaction is still at 65 yuan, and the second license transaction is concentrated at 78 to 80, but due to the recent narrowing of the price difference between flat copper and rising copper in China, the foreign trade market also favors the fire copper with higher performance-to-price ratio, resulting in the transaction price of fire copper rising from 75 to 78. In the past two days, as a whole, demand has been stimulated by the price comparison, the market transaction is general, and the price fluctuates little. 3) inventory: September 3 LME copper inventory reduced by 5800 tons to 330050 tons; last period copper warehouse receipt inventory reduced by 596 tons to 75313 tons 4) spot: spot as a result of a sharp decline in disk prices, it is expected that today's low prices will attract a rapid response from the market, and recent consumption has improved to a certain extent, which will lead to an upsurge of high prices among holders. there was almost no source of low prices in the market yesterday afternoon, and the price is expected to be even worse today. The spot water supply is expected to rise by 80 yuan to 110 yuan per ton today. Copper prices and forecasts: last night, mainly because the market is still more pessimistic about the economic and trade prospects, pulled down copper prices as a whole, although the US ISM manufacturing PMI data for August fell below expectations last night, the US dollar fell below the 99 mark, but it was still at a high level, putting pressure on the performance of copper prices. At present, a number of economies around the world have released manufacturing PMI data for August, which is not as much as expected. The contraction of the global manufacturing industry has further exacerbated fears of an economic slowdown, and CMX gold prices have been occupying a high of $1550 an ounce in recent days. Markets still prefer safe havens, uncertainty about Britain's hard Brexit in Europe and political turmoil in Italy are still simmering, dragging down the macro-economy and hitting record lows against the dollar. The overall market is still dominated by bearish information on copper prices. It is expected to continue to maintain low hovering today, the current Shanghai copper Yang, and has fallen below all EMA, Brin under the rail across the K line entity, has lost Brin line support, the overall technical bearish Shanghai copper. It is expected to be 5590 to 5640 US dollars per ton for London copper and 46000 to 46400 yuan per ton for Shanghai copper today.
